Being or Feeling Left Behind? Marginalisation, Abstention, and Protest Voting in Emilia-Romagna, Italy

Many Western democracies are seeing a rapid growth of populist voting alongside declining electoral participation. These dynamics are the results of complex individual and territorial factors, with perceptions of marginalisation playing a key role. In this article, we investigate how individual and territorial characteristics affect voting behaviours, namely abstention and populist voting, and whether these are better explained by individual perceptions or objective indicators or socioeconomic performance, not necessarily aligned. We focus on the case of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, a region (NUTS2) characterised by high social capital, historical dominance of the political left, and polycentrism, where electoral abstention and polarisation along the centre-periphery fault line are relatively new yet emerging phenomena. We use data from an original survey conducted immediately after the 2024 regional elections, merged with secondary data at the municipal (LAU2) and Local Labour System (LLS) levels. We estimate multivariate, multilevel Bayesian models, addressing endogeneity through a Control Function Approach and a partial two stage residual inclusion specification, complemented by a naïve model, and a transition model incorporating past voting behaviour. Results show that territorial heterogeneity explains a moderate share of variation in electoral behaviour, with individual level factors dominating across model specifications. Perceived economic hardship and social marginalisation are associated with abstention, perceived territorial marginalisation with populist voting. The transition model reveals continuity and substitutability between abstention and populist voting. Policy implications highlight the need to address narratives of marginalisation alongside territorial redistribution, particularly in industrial districts.