Farmers’ perceptions of agricultural risk sources: Evidence from Tunisia

<jats:p>Farmers in Tunisia play a critical role in ensuring food security and sustaining rural livelihoods. However, their development is constrained by multiple risks, including climate variability, market fluctuations, pest infestations, and socio-economic pressures. This study aims to (i) analyze Tunisian farmers’ perceptions of various agricultural risks, and (ii) examine the socio-demographic factors that influence these perceptions. Data were collected from 931 farmers across Central and Northwestern Tunisia using a structured survey instrument. To identify the risk dimensions, principal component analysis (PCA) was employed, which reduces data complexity by grouping correlated risk sources into interpretable components. Two main risk components were identified: natural risks and socio-economic risks. To explore factors associated with high perceived risk, a bivariate probit model was used, as the dependent variables were binary indicators of high versus low perceived risk for each component. Results show that farmers whose main activity is agriculture, younger farmers (under 40), female farmers, and those not assisted by extension services perceive higher levels of risk. Rainfed farming systems and farmer location are also associated with higher perceived risks. These findings highlight the need for targeted risk management strategies that consider farm type, demographic characteristics, and regional differences in order to support farmers and enhance agricultural efficiency in Tunisia.</jats:p>